Opportunities and Challenges:

The package delivery market experienced long term structure tailwind provided by e-commerce growth that was accelerated during COVID, but is now slowing down. Emergent cross border e-commerce market growth (e.g., section 321 shipments) are in the early phases of growth. Labor input costs and productivity challenges must be addressed to lower the cost to serve, especially in the B2C market. Rapid growth of internet-of-things sensor deployment represents a potential threat to B2B package demand due to a reduced need for expedited delivery of parts which represents 50% of total B2B package demand. Amazon and regional carriers will seek to expand in short and medium haul markets resulting in more competition. USPS and postal service network across the world will continue to restructure their networks to match demand and supply while attempting to minimize losses. Public policy makers must address the long term future of package delivery across multiple dimensions including competition, energy transition, incorporation of electric vehicles, and other forms of automation.